Stanford at Washington
Before COVID there was a definite home field advantage when Washington played a game in Alaska Airlines Husky Stadium and this game started out exactly like their game the previous week when Washington hosted and defeated Utah. Unlike last week however, and in spite of playing at home, the Huskies were not able to make up all the points they gave away in the first half–loosing to Stanford 31-26. They outscored the Cardinal 23-7 in the second half, but it was too little too late after going into the break down 24-3.
What was really puzzling to me was the Cardinal’s sudden ability to field a “Stanford like” running game, rushing 40 times against the PAC-12’s best defense while picking up almost 200 yards on the ground and 3 TD’s after averaging 81 yards on the ground the prior two weeks. Have folks been missing on the Stanford Offensive Line due to Covid in previous games, did Washington have key defensive pieces out? It started to become clear to me when calculating the completion percentage of Stanford’s Senior QB Davis Mills who was 20 out of 30 or 66.6%—the antiChrist. That’s right, in this year of plague and one nightmare after another I’ve often felt trapped in the book of Exodus—and now this! For a Washington fan, the only good thing that happened Saturday was that Oregon also lost, keeping us on top in the North for another week.
The Cardinal finally took ownership of the line of scrimmage in this game out-pacing Washington in 1st downs, executing 75% of their 3rd down conversions and were a perfect 2-for-2 on 4th down attempts. The old Stanford ground-and-pound strategy was back in play and when it’s working they eat the clock and keep the other team’s offense off the field. In this case they used a whole quarter’s worth of time on their three first half TD drives. Washington might have won this game with those extra minutes of possession that Stanford basically took away.
The QB’s were within 2 yards of each other, 252 against 254 but it was Stanford’s Senior QB Davis Mills who found the end zone while Freshman Dylan Morris never did. On the ground Stanford rushed 40 times for 191 yards and 3 TD’s with most of that picked up by Sophomore RB Austin Jones who averaged about 4.5 yards a carry while picking up 138 yards and 2 of those 3 rushing TD’s. For Washington, Senior RB Sean McGrew and QB Dylan Morris did the majority of the work for the Huskies, collectively rushing 23 times for 101 yards and 3 TD’s as well.
Going forward, Mike Vorel in his analysis of the game for the Seattle Times points out some glaring issues and a disturbing trend. As he writes; “In UW’s 31-26 loss to Stanford on Saturday, the Huskies allowed at least 4.8 yards per carry for the third time in four games this season. And in those three games — against Oregon State, Utah and Stanford, excluding winless Arizona — the Huskies have surrendered an average of 191 rushing yards and 4.94 yards per carry. Most recently, starting outside linebackers Zion Tupuola-Fetui and Sav’ell Smalls recorded a combined one tackle in the loss to the Cardinal on Saturday, and the defense at large managed one measly tackle for loss. Right now, at least, struggling to stop the run is Husky football.”
Head Coach Jimmy Lake doesn’t have a lot of time to fix what seems to be broken—actually just a week. As I mentioned above, Oregon also lost their game keeping Washington on top until they meet next week in Eugene where the PAC-12 North will get settled. For Stanford, they head to Corvallis where the PAC-12 North third place finisher will be determined between themselves and the Oregon State Beavers.
Oregon at Cal
Going into this contest Oregon had prevailed in 10 of the last 11 meetings against Cal, that one exception being in 2016 on the road in a 52-49 double overtime loss to the Bears. After this past Saturday, make that 10 out of their last 12 as they dropped another on Cal’s home turf 21-17, unable to score a single point in the second half. Going against a Cal team that had been giving up 4.6 yards per carry and 181 rushing yards per game it looked as though the Ducks, with the top offense in the conference—averaging 38.5 points and 492 yards of total offense per game–would flourish with their lead RB, Junior CJ Verdell who was injured in their loss the previous week against Oregon State, coming back. But after averaging 5.8+ yards per carry and 110+ yards per game in Oregon’s first two wins, Verdell rushed only 8 yards on 6 attempts in this game. Add to that the fact that the Duck’s leading receiver Devon Williams was left back in Eugene due to COVID protocals and Oregon’s two untimely lost fumbles, both in the 4th Qtr down 21-17, and you have back-to-back losses. Fortunately for them, Washington also lost in an ugly outing which still leaves the Huskies on top of the PAC-12 North, but only ahead of Oregon by one game, a game and tie-breaker that could be captured by Oregon in their head-to-head matchup this coming Saturday.
After just a field goal to show for their first three possessions the Oregon offense picked up considerably in the last five plus minutes of the first half scoring two TD’s, one on a seven play 75 yard drive culminating in a 39 yard TD from QB Tyler Shough to Johnnny Johnson III with just over 2 minutes left. Then after forcing Cal to punt on their next possession Oregon, with less than a minute left, scored again in just 23 seconds on a Tyler Shough 67 yard pass to Travis Dye, a seven yard run to the Cal 1 by Shough, and a Cyrus Habibi-Likio run into the end zone—sending the Ducks into the break ahead 17-14.
With all that momentum you’d think Oregon would come out with guns blazing in the second half. It was anything but as their entire 3rd and 4th quarter of offensive possessions ending in 5 punts, 1 loss on downs, and 2 fumbles—both turnovers. Cal didn’t set the world on fire either, punting 4 times, 1 loss on downs, and 1 fumble as well. However, half-way through the 3rd Qtr the Bears they did go on a five play 64 yard drive ending with a Chase Garbers 28 yard pass into the end zone to Nikko Remigio for a 21-17 lead that held.
You look at the team stats and Oregon had more first downs, more total yards, more passing yards and more rushing yards, twice as many sacks, and an equal number of tackles for loss. How did they lose? With Verdell limited, probably due to injury, and their top receiver not playing Oregon’s ability to score was limited and exacerbated with those two key fumbles late in the game on drives that could have won the game for them. Considering the issues Washington seems to be having with their run defense, the game next week could come down to whether or not Oregon’s RB CJ Verdell is at 100%. If Jimmy Lake can’t make the adjustments needed between now and then, and if Verdell plays up to par, Oregon will end up representing the North in the PAC-12 Conference Championship Game.
Oregon State at Utah
Head Coach Jonathan Smith and his Oregon State Beavers came so close to getting over the hump and having a winning record, scoring 14 points in the 4th Qtr. But after a slow start offensively it was too little too late. I mean it looked like a non-starter from the get-go with their starting QB Tristan Gebbia out with a hamstring injury and leading RB Jemar Jefferson out as well while adhering to the PAC-12 COVID contact tracing protocal. And it got worse as the game progressed with Jefferson’s back-up going out with a shoulder injury in the first half and starting receiver Champ Flemings out with an injury in the second. In spite of that Oregon State had a couple of chances to win in the final three minutes.
Let’s face it, the Beavers have in the past been a doormat in the PAC-12 North regarding football. But since Smith’s arrival there has been a number of changes in the right direction including better recruiting, better coaching, and the most notable being the culture shift to an attitude that it’s never OK to not try your best, regardless of the score. That attitude was clearly articulated by back-up QB Chance Nolan after the game who said; “I can’t speak enough about the relentlessness of our team. We know the game is never over. It’s a long game … we never give up. You’ve got to fight to the very end. That’s what our team does, week in and week out.”
In the course of this game Utah may have finally found a replacement for Zach Moss, 2019 PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year, who rushed for 1,416 yards and 15 TD’s last year before leaving for the NFL. After rushing for 129 yards in his first couple of games Freshman RB Ty Jordan lit it up against Oregon State with 167 of their 229 yards on the ground and a TD–averaging 6+ yards per carry. Utah Senior QB Jake Bentley managed a good game connecting on 18 of 27 for 174 yards, 1 TD, and no interceptions. But those two combined make up less than half of the points in the Ute’s 30-24 win. The game ball for this victory goes to Utah’s Special Teams players who accounted for the other 16, including Sophomore Place Kicker Jadon Redding who was perfect on the day connecting on all three attempted field goals and extra points and Junior WR Britain Covey who ran back an Oregon State kick-off 64 yards to the house early in the 4th Qtr to extend their lead to 30-17, enough to absorb Oregon State’s TD late in the quarter and still prevail.
For Oregon State, Sophomore QB Chance Nolan connected on 20 of 38 for 202 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception. They rushed 31 times for 133 yards and 2 TD’s, both of those by Junior RB Calvin Tyler. Except for a blown field goal and poor execution by their special teams defense on the punt return the Beavers played well enough to win this game which is why head coach Jonathan Smith was upset afterwards. And as Nick Daschel wrote in the Oregonian regarding the game and Oregon State in general; “Smith had a right to be steamed that Oregon State didn’t execute well enough to win. But he also had reason to take some pride in building a program that routinely puts itself in a position to win. Saturday marked the eighth consecutive game that Oregon State was within one score of the lead during the fourth quarter.” Even with those mistakes the Beavers could have still won had Utah not been so successful with their ground game, possession the ball 11+ minutes longer and keeping Oregon State’s offense off the field.
Utah hits the road to meet Colorado in a huge game for the Buffaloes at 9:00am this coming Saturday on FOX. If they can beat the Utes and USC were to lose against UCLA later in their 4:30pm ABC televised game from the Rose Bowl, Colorado would win the PAC-12 South. Oregon State will travel back home to Corvallis to take on a Stanford team that seems to have finally found its way.
Washington State at USC
Wow-USC QB Kedon Slovis and RB Amon-Ra St. Brown had one hell of a quarter against the Cougars in the Coliseum as Slovis connected on over 90% of his passes for 137 yards and 4 TD’s—all of those going to St. Brown in the first 15 minutes of the game! By the break Slovis was 17 of 18 for 213 yards, no picks, and his 5th TD pass—this one a 35 yard completion to Tyler Vaughns.
During that first half, while the Trojans couldn’t seem to do anything wrong, Washington State couldn’t seem to do much of anything right, even drawing a penalty on their very first play of the game and another on the first play of their next set of downs. Sitting at 4th and 1 in no man’s land at USC’s 35 yard line, with a field goal kicker that is 3 for 7 in his career from 50 yards out, Washington State goes for it but decides on a passing play even though their RB had picked up 19 yards in his only two attempts on the seven play drive. Freshman QB Jayden de Laura’s pass falls incomplete. Seven plays later the Trojans are in the end zone to go up 7-0.
After holding the Cougar’s to a three-and-out on their next possession, the Trojans followed with their 2nd TD, now up 14-0. USC’s next 14 points come courtesy of two Jayden de Laura interceptions, both run back by the defense to inside the five yard line of Washington State and resulting in two more quick scores–USC now up 28-0. During the Cougar’s next possession a combination of back-to-back sacks by USC’s Nick Figueroa for a loss of 8 yards and 12 yards respectively along with a Washington State False Start Penalty had them punting on 4th and 24 at the USC 42. Seven plays later Slovis hits Vaughns in the end zone—Trojans up 35-0. The Cougars finally got points up on the board with 28 seconds left in the half on a Travell Harris TD run. With their first play of the half resulting in a penalty it seemed somehow symetrically fitting that they missed the extra point for their last play of the half, going in down 35-6 at the break.
As exciting as the USC offense was in the first half, it was that dismally boring in the second half—scoring only three more points the rest of the way. Fortunately for the Trojans, although I couldn’t imagine a case where THESE Cougars could have come back from 29 points down, Washington State couldn’t muster up much more than they did the first two quarters—finally scoring another TD on a Gunner Cruz pass to Renard Bell. This time the extra point went in. Final score, 38-13.
After that first half I admit to half-watching the game as I tried to get a head start on the weekly write-ups for this blog. As I looked up now and again I kind of got the impression that maybe Helton was slow walking the second half in an attempt not to embarass the Cougars and their entirely new coaching staff in front of a national TV audience. But after reading through some of the game reviews and looking at the game stats I think there are some things to be concerned about with the most glaring being USC’s running game. I’m not even sure I believed the box score as it said that USC rushed 20 times for just FIVE yards—WTF—you’ve got to be kidding me. Is that even possible?
I was so convinced that the stats must be wrong that I decided to go through the entire game, play-by-play, and add up the rushing yards, plus and minus. So during the Trojan’s first possession Vavae Malepeai rushed for 2 yards. On their 2nd possession Markese Stepp lost two yards. So, with 10 minutes gone in the 1st Qtr the Trojans have zip yards on the ground. Over the next two scoring drives Stepp picked up one yard on the ground. With 11:02 left in the 2nd Qtr Stephen Carr picked up four yards on the ground. After the Cougars score and a touchback, USC only ran one more play before the half-a Kenan Christon run for 7 yards. So far I have Stepp’s for 1, Carr for 4, and Christon for 7 giving us a total of 12 yards on the ground for USC going into the break. With Slovis completely on fire and the two interceptions coming back inside the 5 yard line, it makes sense—at least in the first half—why that total is so small. After all, USC has incorporated a pass first Air Raid style offense, right?
But after totalling those up I was really curious about the 2nd half when Slovis wasn’t throwing a TD every time he got the ball, not throwing any actually. So back I went into the details. On USC’s first possession Slovis ran for 3 yards and Carr for 5. But then Slovis lost 5 yards for a total of 3 yards. We’re up to 15 after adding in the 12 yard first half total. However, on the Trojan’s next set of downs Slovis was sacked for 7 yards putting us at 8 total. On the next set Kenan Christon ran for 4 yards but Slovis was sacked for 11, giving us 8+4-11=1 yard on the ground half-way through the 3rd Qtr. On their next possession Stepp picked up 4 yards giving us a total of 5 yards on the ground through the start of the 4th Qtr. With the next Cougar drive lasting over 10 minutes, the Trojans only got the ball back one more time with less than two minutes left. During that possession we picked up 1 more yard. So, as far as I can tell that Box Score is way off, USC didn’t pick up only five yards on the ground through an entire game, they picked up SIX!! Holy crap, that’s an average of just 0.3 yards per attempt. That must be a record, right? Even the pirate’s running game wasn’t this anemic. But that first half for the Trojans, on both sides of the ball, that was about as perfect as it gets.
There was only one reporter that seemed to have a concern. Ryan Kartje of the Los Angeles Times headlined his review; “USC can’t afford a second half offensive lull against UCLA.” As he writes; “UCLA has offered plenty of evidence over the last year that, if given the chance, it can shrink a lead in a hurry. In September 2019, the Bruins rallied from down 32 points to mount an unforgettable 67-63 comeback win over Washington State. Last month, they nearly pulled off a similar rally against Colorado, erasing a four-touchdown deficit before falling 48-42.” To his point, it wasn’t just the running game that was non-existent in the second half, of their total yards of offense just 64 yards and 3 points came in the second half. And as Helton acknowledged regarding their upcoming game aginst the Bruins; “This is a really important game to be able to play a full 60 minutes and keep your foot on the gas.”
To be fair, Washington State had not been playing due to the COVID protocol and were missing 4 of 8 players in their secondary where they got really burned. This was just De Laura’s third game at QB for the Cougars who sent in a couple of back-ups in the 2nd half who were experiencing their first college games ever with Gunner Cruz connecting on a TD pass to Renard Bell. Washington State had five more first downs in the game compared to USC, 20 to 15, mostly caused by the Trojans not having to mount extended drives prior to scoring. The total offense was fairly close with only 24 yards difference between them with USC dominating the passing yards 282 to 190 and the Cougars picking up 73 yards on the ground against 5 or 6 for the Trojans. The Cougars had possession of the ball for eleven more minutes but USC scored so rapidly in the first half it didn’t make a difference.
USC meets UCLA in the Rose Bowl this coming Saturday at 4:30pm on ABC for what many like to call the Los Angeles City Championship. Due to the conference tie breaking rules that will put USC into the PAC-12 Championship Game from the South if they win the game and stay undefeated, even if Colorado stays undefeated as well, you can bet the Buffaloes will be putting their money on UCLA while trying to earn it at home while hosting Utah. Since I pretty much hate anything that Urban Meyer touched, I’ll be cheering on Colorado. Washington State goes back home to the Polouse to take on Cal.