The PAC-12 North-Oregon

In Chip Kelly’s last season at Oregon the school’s all time rushing leader, LaMichael James, as well as starting QB Darron Thomas decided to jump to the NFL.  Next guys up were redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota and Senior TB Kenjon Barner who led the Ducks to 10 straight before getting beat by Stanford in overtime.  Oregon went on win the Civil War for the fifth consecutive year and play in their fourth consecutive BCS bowl game, knocking off No. 5 Kansas State in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl.  By landing in the No. 2 spot in the final AP Poll they ended their third season in a row in the Top 5 nationally.  

For the next couple of seasons Oregon held its own under Mark Helfrich, Kelly’s Offensive Coordinator who was promoted to head coach upon Kelly’s departure, also finishing in the AP Poll at No 2 in 2014 and for the first time in program history Oregon had a Heisman Trophy Winner in QB Marcus Mariota. But by Helfrich’s third year most all of the players recruited, especially on the defensive side of the ball, under Kelly had left the program. Between that and the changes to the offensive scheme Oregon started to experience some unprecedented losses like a 62-20 beatdown to Utah at home to set a record in the wrong direction for the most points ever given up at Autzen Stadium. 

After a slow 3-3 start they won six straight and made it to the Alamo Bowl where they dominated TCU in the first half to the tune of 31-0. In the second half however the Oregon defense collapsed as thoroughly as many of Oregon’s opponents used to after defending Kelly’s Blur Offense for a half.  TCU scored on every possession in the 2nd half and Oregon set another record in the wrong direction when they lost in triple overtime, 47-41, for allowing the biggest comeback ever in a college football bowl game. Needless to say, after that Helfrich was on death watch.  After numerous coaching changes and a dismal 4-8 season, their worst in 25 years, Helfrich was shown the door. Willie Taggert, head coach of South Florida, was hired to take Helfrich’s spot on Pearl Harbor Day in 2016. That alone should have been an omen.  After going 7-5 overall along with a losing record in the conference on top of 3 players hospitalized early in the season after strenuous workouts, Taggert left for what he said was his dream job at Florida State—didn’t even stay for the bowl game loss.

I give you all that past history so that you can get the low down on the coach who folks seem to think is going to bring the Quack back-Mario Cristobal. 2018 was Cristobal’s first year at the helm finishing 9-4 after coaching four years for Nick Saban at Alabama as assistant head coach, offensive line coach, and recruiting coordinator.  Cristobal’s Alabama classes came in at No. 1 in the national 247Sports rankings all four years he was there winning National Recruiter of the Year in 2015, the same year his offensive line won the Joe Moore Award given to the toughest, most physical line in the nation. Not a surprise given his playing background.  Cristobal played for Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson and Dennis Erickson at the University of Miami, winning two national championships during his four years and in 1992 earned First Team All Big East Conference as an offensive tackle.  

According to 247Sports.com this year’s Oregon class ranks at No 7 Nationally and No. 1 in the PAC-12.  Based on his track record at Alabama you can expect to see Oregon continue to recruit well as long as Cristobal is in place.  Based on his background on the field you can reasonably expect that Cristobal’s version of the Ducks will be tough in the trenches as well.  But besides great new talent there’s a lot of other reasons that some folks, in spite of the media day prediction favoring Utah, think that Oregon is this year’s best hope for the PAC-12 to get itself back into the College Football Playoff.  For all the ducks to fall into place so to speak there will have to be some good fortune regarding how well their opponents do-especially Auburn. It’s kind of like when Mary Swanson in Dumb and Dumber told Lloyd Christmas that the chances of them getting together were like one in a million he responded; “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”

One of the major keys to their success this year will be QB Justin Herbert who decided to bypass the NFL to come back and play in his senior season after throwing for over 3,000 yards last year, including 29 TD’s against just 8 interceptions. But QB isn’t the only position with a returning starter.  When I looked at Phil Steele’s Complete Breakdown of Every College Football Team’s Returning Starters Oregon was in a dead tie with five other teams for a ranking of 4th in nation with seventeen other starters coming back in addition to Herbert-10 on offense and 7 on defense. Interestingly enough the No. 1 ranked team on that list is also a PAC-12 school—UCLA. Protecting Herbert will be a line that returns all five starters while the ground game returns two RB’s that combined for 14 TD’s and just under 1800 yards.

On the other side of the ball Mario Cristobal has brought in Andy Avalos from Boise State to take over as Defensive Coordinator.  In an article for 247sports.com, “A deep dive into Andy Avalos and his defense,” Jared Mack gives us a thorough examination into what you should expect this year and the following quote really stuck out to me; “Avalos’ defense sends players after the quarterback every single play,” which really helps explain Boise State being ranked 10th nationally last year in sacks and turnovers-forcing 24 and recovering 17. Oregon should continue to do well in red zone defense and bring back inside linebacker Troy Dye who recorded 115 tackles last season.  They have two 3 year starters returning at cornerback as well as a great free safety.

It will be immediately apparent whether or not Oregon can get over the hump this year as their achilles heel over the last few seasons has emerged to be road games.  In 2016 and 2017 they lost 5 of 6 road games finally showing some improvement last year going 3-3.  But three losses for Oregon in the PAC-12 will ensure that they get no where near the College Football Playoff nor the PAC-12 Conference Championship.  By the end of the first full month we should know as they’ll be playing two at home and two on the road.  

The No, 13 Ducks open the year at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas against No. 16 Auburn on Saturday, August 31st at 4:30pm on ABC in one of only two Top 25 match-ups Week 1. It’s the kind of the game that both programs need desperately to win to get their seasons off in the right direction.  Oregon will return to Autzen Stadium to take on Nevada and Montana in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively and then will face their first big road test in conference as they travel to Palo Alto to take on Stanford Saturday, September 21st.