When taking over a troubled program it’s fairly usual for a good head coach to do progressively better from year-to-year and have the team turned around by Year 3. For example take Jonathan Smith at Oregon State. He was 2-10 in Year 1, 5-7 in Year 2, and finally achieved a 7-6 winning record in Year 3, getting even better in Year 4, going 10-3. Jedd Fisch took over the Arizona Wildcats after the firing of Kevin Sumlin and went 1-11 in Year 1, 5-7 in Year 2, and 10-3 in Year 3 before moving to take over the head coaching duties at Washington. One exception that I have noted over the years is San Diego State former head coach Brady Hoke who after a couple of years leading the Aztecs took the job as head coach at Michigan, replacing Rich Rodriguez. In Year 1 he was 11-2, Year 2 he was 8-5, and in Year 3 he was 7-6, dropping to 5-7 in Year 4. In spite of that for some reason San Diego State decided that they needed him back and hired him in the 2020 Covid year. In his first full year back the Aztecs were 12-2, Year 2 they were 7-6, and last year they dropped all the way to 4-8. Enter new head coach Sean Lewis, head coach at Kent State from 2018-2022 and then offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Colorado last year while also having prior stints at Eastern Illinois, Bowling Green, and Syracuse.
Not sure why I went through all of that other than to point out that this will most likely be a down year for Lewis and San Diego State and because of that it’s hard to put a lot of value into or derive a lot of information from this Oregon State 21-0 victory. That said, they should have been able to score a lot more points than they did but had a number of drives that just died on the vine—six where they either ended up punting or turning the ball back on downs in addition to two missed field goals. Looking at the field goal situation they have a real problem. I don’t mind raking coaches over the coals but seldom call out players and this is only the second time that I remember doing it—the place kicker for Oregon State is a problem. He’s fine, 4-of-5, if the distance is less than 30 yards but last year he was just 2-of-8 on field goals of 30 yards or more. So far this year he’s 1-of-3. Prior to their current kicker, Everett Hayes, there was Atticus Sappington who took off in the portal when Smith left for Michigan State. Sappington was so good, 13-of-14 regardless of distance, that his nickname was Automaticus.
And that’s not the only weapon the Beavers are missing on the offensive side. Also gone is super talented 6’ 5” tight end Jack Velling, the Beavers more productive player in the end zone last year with 8 TD’s, who followed Smith to play for the Spartans. Additionally they lost 700+ yard WR Anthony Gould to the NFL as well as their starting QB, DJ Uiagalelei, to Florida State via the portal. Also gone, their best RB when healthy. In 2022 Damien Martinez, rushed for 18 yards shy of 1,000 and 7 TD’s and although just playing in five games last year due to injury he still averaged right at 100 yards per game. That’s why, as reported in Oregonlive prior to the start of the season, they wrote; “After seeing most of the key players from last season’s roster bolt in the transfer portal or leave for professional football, most national prognosticators are predicting a modest season for the Beavers, who will play a first-of-its-kind hybrid schedule featuring Power Four schools like Oregon, Cal and Purdue and a heavy mix of Mountain West opponents.”
In spite of that Trent Bray, former Defensive Coordinator and Safeties Coach for the Beavers, promoted to head coach when Smith left, is of the thinking that they have the talent to land a post season berth in the 12 player national championship. If I was writing a computer program in basic this is where I would enter a “goto line 1” statement and read again that part explaining that Year 1 is usually your worst. It’s his first year and although they are still looking stout defensively they have just lost way too much offensively for me to buy into that. That doesn’t mean that I hope they don’t do well because I do. It just means I won’t believe it until I see it and starting the season with wins against an Idaho State who was 4-18 over the last two years and San Diego State who was 4-8 last year isn’t going to do it for me. This coming Saturday they will be playing against the entire other end of the talent spectrum as they play host to No. 9 Oregon. That won’t go well for them but may not be the right situation to measure them accurately either. I think, after all they’ve lost, if they can play well enough to become bowl eligible that should be looked at as a good season for Oregon State.