Arizona
I think the only thing that might keep Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin in his job after this year is his contract that lasts through next year and having to mitigate the schedule mess caused by the pandemic. In a year in which the Wildcats will need a miracle to survive the football Gods have instead given their team-arguable the worst in the conference-the most horrendous schedule possible. As Jon Wilner writes in the Mercury News Hotline; “Brutal schedule, cloudy future and skeptical outlook . . . extremely skeptical outlook.” Regarding that schedule, it’s brutal for sure with two of their first three games on the road at Utah and Washington of all places. In between they host USC, this year’s favorite to win the PAC-12 South. Believing in what Wilner describes as the, “Teetering Coach Theory [where if] losses mount early and the clouds of termination gather, a mid-season collapse often follows,” he predicts they will lose the next two games as well to teams they might have been able to beat, Colorado and UCLA. As a result he is, “envisioning a bad start and a worse finish,” and sees the program trajectory headed, “downward with a chance of collapse.” Quite a forecast.
Not only have they struggled to get and keep quality players but multiple coaches have been either fired or escaped to better programs. Nobody basically wants to play or coach a team that has lost more games and given up more points in the conference and only produced as Athlon Sports points out, “just one first-team All-PAC-12 Player over the last five years.” Arizona won the Pac-12 South under Rich Rodriguez in 2014 with Khalil Tate under center. But Sumlin came in after Rodriguez was fired, brought in Noel Mazzone as Offensive Coordinator and tried to fix what wasn’t broken-ending up with a very stodgy offense in comparison and a program that has been crumbling ever since. It reminds me of Mike Dantoni’s stint with the Lakers. He didn’t have the players to run the system he wanted to run, but ran it anyway.
As far as this year’s team goes they have a few returning starters on the line but no depth per say. Grant Gunnell returns under center after sharing duties with Khalil Tate having completed 65% of his passes last year for a little over 1,200 yards and more impressively just one interception. They bring back six receivers that combined to catch over 150 passes last year as well as a couple of running backs in Gary Brightwell and Michael Wiley.
On defense they return ten players who all have started at some point if not full-time. Having allowed an average of 34 points per game, highest in the PAC-12 over the last five years, they can use all the experience on defense they can get. New Defensive Coordinator and former head coach at Iowa State, Paul Rhoads, and his newly hired assistants will be trying to put those days behind them. They are strong at the linebacker position with returning Seniors Colin Schooler and Anthony Pandy but according to Athlon, “new secondary coach Greg Burns will have to rebuild the safety position,” the result of four guys transfering out.
Arizona State
Arizona State looses two highly productive offensive weapons in WR Brandon Aiyuk and RB Eno Benjamin, both first team all PAC-12, who represented the majority of yards gained and all of the TD’s scored last year. However, they get back their signal caller in Jayden Daniels, a careful but improvisational game manager who threw only 2 interceptions the entire season and had some very productive outings, throwing over 300 yards five times and over 400 yards in an upset 31-28 victory over the No. 6 Ducks. The new Offensive Coordinator, Zak Hill from Boise State, is expected to create a system that will minimize those loses as well as one that will better use the skills of Daniels whom head coach Herm Edwards believes is a rising star.
The Sun Devils pick up two transfers on the offensive line from Texas A&M and Stanford and bring back Donovan West to take over at Center. They struggled with pass protection last year as well as creating holes for their backs-averaging just 123 yards per game and brought up the rear in first downs as far as the conference goes. In order to win the PAC-12 South Division the line will have to improve significantly.
NFL head coach Marvin Lewis and Antonio Pierce will share the job of coordinating what has been the strength of Arizona State-the defense. Holding six teams to 17 points or less last year they expect to be even better this year with the return of eight starters including the linebacking duo of Darien Buter and Merlin Roberson who combined for 162 tackles and are arguably the best in the PAC-12. The secondary was spotty early with only four picks but got nine interceptions in the last three games, including two against Justin Herbert in that victory over Oregon. Between the interceptions and recovering 13 of 19 forced fumbleds, the Sun Devils were Top 5 nationally in take-aways.
Expected to compete for the division title, we’ll find out their fate as early as Week 1 as they travel to the coliseum to take on this year’s PAC-12 Media Poll South Division favorite, USC. In this shortened conference games only season, if you expect to play for the PAC-12 Championship this is as must-win as it gets.
Utah
The Utes are the returning south division winners and have only one more hurdle to clear as far as the conference goes after loosing last year to Oregon in the PAC-12 Conference Championship game. If they do get by both USC and Arizona State to make a return appearance they’ll accomplish what the Mercury News calls an unprecidented feat: “Since the conference expanded in 2011, no team in the North or South has won three division titles in a row. Only two, Stanford in 2012-13 and Utah in 2018-19, have won back-to-back titles.”
Taking a look at the team, odds are that Oregon is more likely to become the third team to go back-to-back than Utah is to post a three-peat. They come into the season having to replace a lot of pieces and typically do not rank very high in recruiting within the PAC-12 or nationally. This year they are fifth in the conference behind Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Arizona State and 29th in the country right below, interetingly enough, former Cougar head coach Mike Leach’s new team, Mississippi State. But starting his 16th year as Utah’s Head Coach and 26th year in the program, having served 10 year’s as Defensive Coordinator, Kyle Whittingham knows exactly the type of player he wants and has been able to restock the shelves year-after-year, even though this year the cupboards were much more bare than in the past.
Fortunately most all of a big experienced and talented offensive line returns which should afford Utah the time they need, after loosing both their starting QB Tyler Huntley and brilliant running back Zack Moss, to transition the next guys up. Tyler Huntley, a first team all PAC-12 QB, left as one of the school’s best signal callers of all time setting multiple Utah records regarding completion percentage, yards per pass, passing efficiency and total offense per play. In his place will probably be one of two transfers, either graduate student Jake Bentley from South Carolina or sophomore Cameron Rising from Texas. According to the Mercury News their money is on Bentley, “a multi-year starter in the SEC who threw for 500+ yards and five touchdowns against Clemson two years ago,” starting 33 games for the Gamecocks. Helping whoever ends up with the job will be a couple of options in TE Brant Kuithe and Slot Receiver Britain Covey while they wait for one or more of the less experienced WR’s to emerge. As far as replacing Moss, you’ll probably be looking at a running back by committee approach most of the season unless and until a star emerges between the two juniors, one sophomore and incoming freshman that are competing for the job.
If loosing their star QB and RB wasn’t enough to deal with Utah had to replace nine starters from a defense that ended up in the Top 10 nationally in Total Defense, Scoring Defense, and Rushing Defense. Defensive End Mika Tafua and Linebacker Devin Lloyd are the only starters returning. Tafua, who notched 47 tackles, three sacks, and was 2nd in the nation with four fumble recoveries last year has been voted captain and will anchor the newly formed defense. But don’t get me wrong, they’re not starting entirely from scratch as a number of the guys stepping into the starting roles got in significant reps last year and as Tafua was quoted as saying; ‘Defensive Coordinator Morgan Scalley does a great job making sure the culture is for everyone and [even though] there are a lot of young guys, I feel that we’ve done a pretty good job at recruiting people who want to get better.” Scalley says the line is the most experienced of the returning defense and that 6’ 6” 323 pound transfer tackle Viane Moala from Hawaii will be one of the top defensive linemen in the PAC-12. According to head coach Kyle Whittingham; “When he has really got the switch flipped he’s almost impossible to block.”
They’ll start off at home against Arizona and then on the road at UCLA before facing the two teams in back-to-back games that will most likely determine their fate in the South taking on USC at home and then Arizona State on the road. It’s possible they could win their third division title in a row and certainly Kyle Whittingham deserves to win the PAC-12 and make it to the Rose Bowl. But will they—I don’t think so.
UCLA
After allowing almost 35 points a game last year and 43 over the last three games of the season one has to wonder about keeping Defensive Coordinator Jerry Azzinaro who has been responsible for designing this mess. So what do you do when you need help defending-you call in the military of course and that role has been filled by Brian Norwood, defensive coordinator for Navy in 2019. Although Norwood is officially the Defensive Backs Coach according to the Los Angeles Times, “his fingerprints will be all over the entire defense.” Let’s hope so. It’s year three for Chip Kelly and the frustration among the fans is palpable but considering the deficit of the athletic department, $35 million over two years according to the Mercury News, the millions they will lose due to the pandemic and the $9M buyout on Kelly’s contract that currently runs through 2022, getting rid of him after another disappointing year isn’t guaranteed.
As far as defense goes their starting linebackers are all gone but the unit may have significant depth on the line after recoveries from quite a number of injuries last year. Osa Odighizuwa, their top defensive lineman, returns for his final year. According to Athlon Sports in their preview; “On the back end, top corner Darnay Holmes is gone, but virtually everyone else returns for new DBs coach Brian Norwood. Ex-Stanford starter Obi Eboh will provide an experienced hand on the outside, while the safety spots are deep enough to allow more nickel and dime packages.” As far as those linebackers go they are looking to a backup, a freshman, and a Junior College transfer to take three of those spots with a couple of veterans to fill in while they learn
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Bruin’s QB, returns for his third year and is still their best hope for success even though his percentage accuracy and TD-to-interception ratio, currently at 59% and 28-16 respectively, needs to improve. Demetric Felton will lead the attack on the ground but as Athlon notes regarding Felton he is; “a converted receiver who is best lining up all over the field.” You can expect to see Kazmeir Allen, who in a limited role gained 5.8 yards a carry in 2019, and Brittain Brow who was injured last year to take more dominant roles in the ground game. They have some very talented returning receivers including Sophomore Kyle Phillips, who set a school record catching 60 as a freshman, Chase Cota, and Jaylen Erwin. But it all could unravel due to an offensive line who according to Athlon, “remains a jumble.” There are a couple of solid tackles, Duke Clemens who will work at guard and center, and then converted defensive players filling in the missing pieces.
If they are better than 2-4 in their shortened conference only schedule I’ll be pleasantly surprised. Even though they start off on the road it will be against a team they should be able to beat, Colorado. The next two games will be tough as they get Utah at home but then hit the road again for this year’s projected favorite, Oregon. They come back home to take on what should be a beatable Arizona team but then face a couple of teams in back-to-back games that will be competing for the PAC-12 South title in Arizona State and USC.
Colorado
Colorado has been consistent, just not the kind of consistent you want going 5-7 three consecutive seasons in a row and reaching a bowl game only once in the last 13 seasons. Enter new head coach Karl Dorrell who hasn’t been a college football head coach since 2007. Unlike Utah whose had the same head coach for 16 seasons now, Dorrell is the 27th head coach hired to lead the Buffaloes. Most of his experience since UCLA has been in the NFL, predominantly as a QB and wide receiver’s coach. With a lean towards the offense he has brought in Tyson Summers to be his Defensive Coordinator. Summers last full year stint was head coach at Georgia Southern in 2016. What do you think, now that I’m posing the question, they ended up at record wise at the end of that season? You guessed it, 5-7. After starting the next season at 0-6 he was fired. I guess that’s one way to keep that consistency going at Colorado. Well, all negative comments aside, Summers has been a good defensive coach for several teams over the years working with the defensive backs at Georgia as a graduate assistant, the safeties at Georgia Southern, the safeties-special team-and linebackers at UAB, and notably Defensive Coordinator for UCF and Colorado State.
Summers inherits eight of the top 11 tacklers from 2019. That sounds promising but as College Football News points out; “they return for a defense that finished 104th in the nation and struggled against anyone who could throw.” But it is a defense that improved over the course of the season holding Stanford and Washington to less than 15 points each in back-to-back wins to close out last year’s home schedule. Anchoring the defensive line will be 6’ 6” 280 pound first team all-conference Terrance Lang, who returns after posting 137 tackles and 112 solo tackles-second most in Colorado history. If Lang doesn’t get to them on the inside you can expect the returning defensive ends, including Mustafa Johnson, to record lots of tackles towards the edge with Seniors Nate Landman, who led the team with 137 tackles last year, and Akil Jones the foundation of the linebacking corp. They feel as though their safeties will be solid if healthy and the corner positions improved over last year.
Darrin Chiaverini returns to coordinate an offense that was ninth overall in conference last year and tenth in scoring, much of that attributed to a mediocre performance by QB Steven Montez who although throwing for close to 3,000 yards had 10 picks against 17 TD’s. Regarding that, Jack Barsch writes in an article for SB Nation; “Well, after three years of backing up Steven Montez including one year at safety, Sam Noyer has finally earned a starting spot at quarterback. Karl Dorrell made the announcement after practice that Noyer edged out Tyler Lytle to earn snaps when they meet UCLA on November 7th. Sam Noyer was set to be a graduate transfer this offseason but head coach Dorrell convinced him to come back and compete for the starting job. The two other quarterbacks, Tyler Lytle and Brendon Lewis, competed all camp with all three working first string snaps. Having only thrown just 40 college passes in those three years backing up Montez, expect to see the two other guys rotate in under center during the course of this shortened season.
The Buffaloes bring back quite a bit of talent to help whoever is under center including Junior RB Alex Fontenot, returning after a season in which he led the team rushing with 874 yards, and sophomore Jaren Mangham who added 441 yards and three more scores on the ground. There’s more guys behind them and it is expected that Chiaverini will be rotating the backs in and out in order to force the defense to constantly be facing fresh guys throughout the game. They lost Laviska Shenault and Tony Brown from the receiving corp but bring back KD Nixon who might get the most action, Dimitri Staley, and a good sized tight end in Brady Russell. Three starters return on the offensive line which is expected to be adequate but could be a problem if injuries arise as they are not very deep.
USC
When thinking back to 2019 I imagine the boosters and most adament USC fans probably only remember the losses to BYU, Notre Dame and Washington in the first half, the humbling by Oregon in the coliseum in early November and finally that 49-24 loss to Iowa in the Holiday Bowl. But the BYU and Notre Dame games were on the road and both lost by just three points with the game in Provo going into overtime. They beat last year’s eventual PAC-12 South Division Champion Utah and after loosing to the Ducks 56-24 came back the next two weeks to beat really good Arizona State and Cal teams, ending the regular season with a victory over their cross-town rival UCLA. I admit, I was on the band wagon to run Helton out of town but after seeing what he was willing to do last year to change direction and what he’s done since has convinced me that they are finally back on the right track and I’m giving him a pass this year. Of course I think almost every coach in the PAC-12 will get a pass this year—except maybe Sumlin in Arizona.
The biggest change in the program last year came with the hiring of Graham Harrell to be Helton’s Offensive Coordinator. Growing up in Southern California and watching the Trojans play year-after-year, moving away from a traditional pro set tailback dominant style of play seemed like heresy to me. Harrell loves the spread, is a pass first kind of guy, and worked under Mike Leach-the co-inventor of the Air Raid offense-for two years. But Helton was smart enough and humble eough to realize that what they were doing wasn’t working and made the change to a more open and aggressive style of play and I think it’s clear that it worked out.
Helton made a second major move at the end of last year by dumping Defensive Coordinator Clancy Pendergast who fielded a stodgy group that lacked discipline and consistently underperformed giving up an average of 29+ points and 8 penalties a game over the last two years-last in the PAC-12. By hiring Todd Orlando from Texas, to replace Pendergast as his Defensive Coordinator, Helton is indicating that he is wanting to be more agressive on the other side of the ball as well.
Additionally they upped their recruiting efforts by picking up, according to the Los Angeles Times, “one of the top L. A. area recruiters, Donte Williams, from Oregon just weeks after the Ducks won the Rose Bowl.” The Times continues; “Grabbing Williams was a power move by Helton . . . [and they continued by adding] long-needed support to a depleted recruiting arsenal, hiring videographers to promote the program on social media and quality control assistants, bringing former star lineback Chris Claiborne back to Troy.” Helton and Williams worked together promoting the program on zoom and via virtual visits and a branding of Take Back the West from their social media staff translated as the Trojans moved from an unheard of 64th last year to No. 7 in the this year’s National Recruiting Rankings.
The Trojans have talent all over the field on the offensive side starting with arguably the best QB in the conference this year, Kedon Slovis, along with skilled running backs and not unusual for USC, a stable of receivers second to none. On the other side of the ball are plenty of big and talented bodies to fill every position. It will be up to Orlando to put it all together, instill some much needed disciplne, and get them to perform up to their level of talent. Plenty of opportunities for break-out defensive stars to emerge in this group, especially among the linebackers and cornerbacks. They don’t have a particularly tough schedule but it starts off with a bang against maybe their toughest opponent in Arizona State. Look for the Trojans to win it all this year.