2020 PAC-12 North Preview

Oregon

After winning last year’s PAC-12 Conference Championship and a thrilling one point victory against Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, it’s not a surprise that Oregon comes in as the prohibitive favorite to win the conference again. They come in on top of the PAC-12 Media Poll and are currently ranked in the national Top 20 in spite of not yet playing a single game. In spite of all that good news there are plenty of issues to deal with, especially on offense, in order for the Ducks to live up to Head Coach Mario Christobal’s high expectations-not the least of which is the loss of QB Justin Herbert to the NFL and five of the offensive linemen that did such a good job of protecting him and opening up holes for their running game.  As far as that running game goes, if they solve their issues on the line they’ve got a great one in CJ Verdell who returns after back-to-back years rushing 1,000 yards.

On the other side of the ball Oregon also loses a number of defensive linemen as well but returns the entire secondary and most importantly their terrific Defensive Coordinator Andy Avalos, now in his second year. It will be the defensive unit that is expected to keep everything in check while Oregon’s offense puts it together with QB Tyler Shough under center. Not as tall as Herbert and without the canon for an arm, Shough is considered according to Athlon Sports in their preview of the Ducks, “a charismatic leader who commands respect [and] very efficient in four mop-up appearances over the course of the 2019 season.”  Expect to see a number of QB run options throughout the new Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead’s typical game plan.

The schedule certainly favors the Ducks with a couple of gimme games straight out of the gate against the only two teams in the PAC-12 with new head coaches, Colorado and Washington State, and in the case of the Cougars a complete turnover in their entire coaching staff. Arizona State will be their first real test and Oregon State, one of only two teams with their entire coaching staff returning, will be tougher than expected. It’s the 2nd half of their shortened season that will cause them the most trouble, but by then they should have things worked out prior to meeting Washington, Cal, and USC in back-to-back-to-back games, two at home and one on the road. After that they should be able to rest easy against Arizona on the road.

Oregon State

Oregon State made great strides last year finishing 2nd in the PAC-12 North after going 2-10 overall and 1-8 in conference in Coach Jonathan Smith’s first year. One of only two teams returning their entire coaching staff, the Beavers are hoping to finally have their first winning record since 2013. If you don’t remember Smith was a former Beaver QB (1998-2001) who threw for 9,500+ yard and 55 TD’s, stayed in Corvallis a year as a graduate assistant and was then hired by Idaho as a QB coach from 2004 to 2009. Following that he worked at Idaho for a couple of year’s as their Offensive Coordinator and was then hired by Chris Petersen at Boise State. He followed Petersen to Washington and was the Huskies Offensive Coordinator for four seasons which includes 2016 when they made a run on the national title, ranked 15th in total offense, and ended the season ranked 4th in the Final AP Poll, finally coming to Corvallis after the Beavers posted a dismal 1-11 season in 2017.  

In spite of expectations by the coaching staff Oregon State is expected to come in 5th in the North according to the PAC-12 Preseason Media Poll.  But after coming in 2nd last year I doubt the Beavers will live down to those expectations.  They open up their season against a completely revamped Washington State who was responsible late last year for bursting the Beaver’s post season bubble in a 54-53 loss up in the Palouse.  After what I expect will be a successful opener they’ll face favorite Oregon at home in Corvallis.  You might see Oregon State post an upset of the Ducks this early in the schedule against a favorite that will be trying to adjust to a lot of missing pieces.  Regardless of the outcome that game should set a tone for what they’ll need to do to have that winning season. Let’s not forget that the Beavers only lost by three points to Hawaii and Stanford last year and defeated a Cal team who is expected to compete with Oregon for the PAC-12 North title.

The Beavers, like their cross state rival, also must replace their starting QB but have an experienced offensive line that should ease the transition as well as creating holes for returning RB’s Jemar Jefferson and B. J. Baylor. According to the Register Guard; “The defense is headlined by linebacker Hamilcar Rashed, a preseason first-team All-American who led the nation with 22.5 tackles for loss and was third with 14.0 sacks last season”, both Oregon State single-season records. Linebacker Avery Roberts is also back after setting an 83 tackle bench mark for the team with Jaydon Grant leading an experienced secondary. Other than Washington State, the Beavers have no give me games and will have to really earn that move up from their 5th place projection in the PAC-12 North

Stanford

You could say that Stanford gets the toughest start of all in this strange COVID-19 conference only PAC-12 football schedule, drawing Oregon on the road in Week 1. The Ducks have only lost one game at home during Cristobal’s tenure, ironically against the Cardinal in their 2018 season opener. According to head coach David Shaw he is, “excited to open the season at last year’s PAC-12 champs and a very good Oregon football team and continue from there.”  I wonder if he was just as excited to learn that expectations are low for the Cardinal after their 3-6 conference record train wreck of last year, loosing to Colorado of all teams.  Not surprisingly Stanford is pegged to come in 4th in the PAC-12 North Division behind, Oregon, CAL, and Washington. Looking at the schedule they probably win over Colorado and Washington State but loose in their opener to Oregon and later on the road at Cal and Washington.  Whether they end up at 2-4 or 3-3 will depend on that last game at home against Oregon State.

Their QB, K. J. Costello, transported himself Star Trek like through the college football transfer portal to Mississippi State where he teamed up with former head pirate/coach of the Washington State Cougars, Mike Leach, to take down LSU in this year’s first outing.  I watched the game and honestly, having a former PAC-12 QB and head coach accomplish that was the next best thing for me to actually getting back into the final four.  If things don’t pan out in the long run for Costello, throwing for five TD’s and 623 SEC recording setting yards while stunning last year’s national champion 44-34 on their home turf in Baton Rouge is a priceless memory.

We have to give Coach Shaw some slack here as Stanford who was not only dealing with an injured Costello lost their best tackle, Walker Little, in game one of last year-out for the season-and those weren’t their only injuries.  Pile on top of that multiple back-ups, sensing the hot mess that the Cardinal were going to be, ran for the portal in an effort to escape to a team where they might possibly realize their dream of starting and playing for a winning team, making it to a bowl, getting noticed and getting drafted.  As I’ve mentioned in the past, for less than 2% of all college football players getting drafted in the NFL will remain just that-a dream. My advice-stay put, be disciplined, work hard, improve, be a productive part of your team, and get ready to apply all you’ve learned to the rest of your life.

Davis Mills, who in 2019 stepped in for an injured Costello, will start behind center and in only six games last year threw for just under 2,000 yards and 11 TD’s. There will be lots of folks for Mills to throw to with the return of three key wide receivers as well as another NFL sized and talented Tight End TaeVeon Le. They are looking to sophomore back Austin Jones to literally hit the ground running in an effort to climb out of the PAC-12 rushing basement, coming in next to last the previous two years.  Stanford not having a solid running game and averaging less than 4 yards per carry is like, well, like a 25% maximum occupancy requirement in a restaurant—not normal. But none of that’s happening unless their line can stiffen up, providing both pass protection and holes to run through. Until Little becomes completely healthy they’ll be looking to their upper classmen in Center Drew Salman and Tackle Foster Sarell to solidify that group.

On defense they have lost the team’s leading tackler as well as their starting defensive end and defensive tackle to the transfer portal. Huge loss there as the two combined for 11 sacks last year. They are expecting to be ok in the secondary and should be solid on special teams. Shaw was quoted as saying; “I think it’s going to be interesting to play in that stadium [Autzen] without noise. I can’t even fathom it without fans, but regardless of not having fans, that’s a talented football team playing at home. So we have to come in with the right mindset and know that we’ve got to play a very good game to have a chance to win.”  The preseason poll has the Cardinal coming in fourth, but I think they’ll also come in behind Oregon State. Time will tell.

CAL

Cal’s 2019 season started off with a bang-literally-knocking off Washington in Husky stadium in a 3 hour lightening and rain delayed game that didn’t end until sometime after 2:00am the next morning.  Two weeks later they flew all the way across the country into SEC territory and knocked off Ole Miss.  They went backwards for a few weeks afterwards but then finished strong, winning four of their last five knocking off Washington State, Stanford, UCLA, as well as Big Ten Illinois in the RedBox Bowl. With a team that returns more starters than any other in the entire PAC-12, including third year QB Chase Garbers, and a revamped offense inspired by former NFL Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave it’s not surprising that CBS Sports as well as all the other previewers have Cal, “posed for a breakout year.”  

Head Coach Justin Wilcox begins his fourth year and after improving every season the Bears feel as though they are ready to contend against Oregon and Washington for the PAC-12 North. The schedule is tough and gets serious right from the start with a rematch against a Washington team that they knocked off to start the season last year. After that they’re on the road to face Arizona State, a team expected to compete for the South against USC. They’ll play Stanford in Berkeley and then host an Oregon team that will be in end-of-season form.  

Wide Receiver Nikko Remigio is back as are ten wideouts and tight ends including, according to College Football News, “6-5, 230-pound junior TE Jake Tonges after averaging over 20 yards per grab.” Lead RB Christopher Brown returns after rushing over 900 yards last year as well as both back-ups. The key for Garbers, Remigio, Tonges, and Brown lie in the five returning offensive line starters because you can say without a doubt, last year’s line was horribly offensive.

Washington

You’ll find Chris Peterson at No. 16 on the list of Top All-Time Major/FBS College Football Coaches by Winning Percentage.  Above him in this very heady group are coaching legends like Knute Rockne, Tom Osborne, and Barry Switzer. Below him are the likes of Paul “Bear” Bryant, Bo Schembechler, and Nick Saban at No. 17. Yeah, he was that good.  Last year in somewhat of a surprise annoucement Coach Peterson announced his retirement and after 23 years at the job ended his career fittingly with a win in the Las Vegas Bowl against the Boise State team he led to an undefeated regular season in his very first year as a head coach.

One would think that the Huskies are bound to take a major step backwards this year as a result and those two PAC-12 Championships, a 4th place finish in the College Football Playoff Ranking, a semi-final spot in the final four against Alabama and winning the in-state rivalry game against Washington State in the Apple Cup every year will be no longer. But taking over the reins at Washington is Jimmy Lake who was Peterson’s Defensive Coordinator for the entire run, putting together year-after-year one of the best defensive units in the nation.

The Husky’s should be good on the ground, bringing back three tail-backs and adding a new one including last year’s red-shirt freshman phenom Richard Newton who ran for 11 TD’s in 10 games, tying for the team lead. This year’s red-shirt fresman is Cameron Davis who, according to the Seattle Times, “rushed for 3,328 yards and 42 touchdowns in three seasons on varsity at Upland High School in Rancho Cucamonga, California.” Maybe I should say they better be good on the ground because they’ll be running a pro-style scheme under new Offensive Coordinator John Donovan from the Jacksonville Jaguars. With a first year starting QB, Jacob Sirmon, calling the signals it will be the running game that keeps their opponent’s defense honest, setting up what is expected to be a deep passing attack to a very inexperienced receiving corp having lost Hunter Bryant, Aaron Fuller and Andre Baccellia from last year. Two starters returning on the offensive line should help get things going along with the others-all averaging over 310 pounds plus. As far as the defense goes, Washington has seven starters coming back from a national Top 20 defensive unit.

I think Jimmy Lake will take zero amount of time transitioning to the head coaching position. As the Seattle Times put it: “Lake’s appointment to replace Petersen was one of the cleanest, clearest, no-brainer promotions in conference history. He coordinated a championship defense, put together backfields that were the envy of the league, sent players to the NFL, and turned down coaching offers from other schools.” Lake is a brilliant young coach who instills his players with discipline, skill, intensity, and passion for the game. They are predicted to finished No. 3 in the North behind both Oregon and Cal but I’m expecting by the end of their shortened season they will go into Oregon to play for the PAC-12 North Division Title.

Washington State

As most all of you know Washington State Cougar Head Coach Mike Leach left for Mississippi State at the end of last year. The AD was so happy to sign Leach that right after word got out he tweeted a “Pirates of the Caribbean” video mashed up with a clip of a waving Mississippi State flag and then Leach appeared in another video driving a horse drawn wagon inviting folks to jump on the Mississippi State Band Wagon—all that before he led his team to a victory over last year’s national champion LSU in his debut as head coach. But all the initial excitement was shortlived and as News Mississippi reports; In Week 1, Mississippi State, Mike Leach, and KJ Costello were the toast of the college football world . . . Two weeks later, the wheels are completely off, as State could only muster a safety via a bad Kentucky snap in a humbling 24-2 defeat. State’s offense was completely ineffective, throwing a total of five interceptions, including a pick-six for a third straight week.”  Sorry, I digress, this is supposed to be about Washington State.

Well, as far as this year’s team goes Jeff Nusser put it best in his Coug Center WSU Football Preview when he wrote; “There’s going to be a whole lot of guesswork involved in all of this, because there’s so much we just don’t know. It was always going to involve a huge measure of uncertainty with a new head coach and a whole new staff bringing a new offense-led by a new quarterback-and a new defense.”  And all that uncertainty was on the board BEFORE dealing with COVID-19. 

Head Coach Nick Rolovich brings in Jake Dickert from Wyoming to be the new defensive coordinator for Washington State, a team that lost their defensive coordinator mid-season of last year and then filled the position by committee.  What’s that old saying, “a camel is a horse that was designed by committee.” The Cougar defense was just as ugly-remember that UCLA comeback last year where Washington State gave up 50 points in the second half of a 67-63 loss.  There’s help on the way I think.  Dickert’s Wyoming team allowed less than 18 points a game last year and were good at containing the run.

The scariest part of the Cougar offense will probably be at QB since the No. 1, 2, and 3 guys are all gone and they’re starting from scratch. Athlon Sports rates the newcomers as follows: “Cammon Cooper, a redshirt sophomore once considered the country’s 15th-ranked pro-style high school QB, isn’t short on natural ability, but he and strong-armed redshirt freshman Gunner Cruz needed spring ball to develop in Rolovich’s system. That may not prove as challenging for incoming freshman Jayden de Laura, who won two state championships as a run-and-shoot QB for Honolulu powerhouse Saint Louis.”

What should help all of these new QB’s immensely is the return of running back Max Borghi, who will have a bigger role in the new system.  Not running Borghi more was my biggest frustration watching the team last year and I’m really excited to see what kind of damage this guy can do when let loose.  As far as the receiving corp goes they lose their top three but if you enjoyed watching Leach’s Air Raid Offense you know that seven to ten players were getting multiple receptions each and every game and they will return three solid starters along with one coming off a redshirt year and one back from injury. The experienced offensive line should be a strength and according to Athlon sports, “return two potential pros in tackles Liam Ryan and Abraham Lucas.” As far as field position goes they return punter Oscar Draguicevich III whose 45 yard average was 2nd in the conference.  If they get close enough for a field goal they have Blake Mazza whose 20 of 21 success rate last year holds the highest field-goal percentage in Washington State history. 

The PAC-12 Media Poll has the Cougars coming in last in the North.  In their preview, Athlon seemed to think that Washington State would have come out of their non-conference games, that have been cancelled, at 5-0. They’ve got a tough schedule for sure although they at least will be playing Oregon, Washington, and Cal at home but then are on the road at Stanford and USC.  As Jeff Nusser put it, “There’s going to be a whole lot of guesswork involved in all of this.”